Decline in steel futures
Steel and raw material futures prices continue to fall, reflecting continued pessimism in the market. On March 18, quotations on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) showed a decrease: rebar fell by 26 RMB/t (3.6 $/t), and hot–rolled roll - by 16 RMB/t (2.2 $/t). A similar situation was observed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), where the price of iron ore decreased by 1.5 RMB/t (0.2 $/t), and coking coal – by 13 RMB/t (1.8 $/t).
Problems in China's construction sector remain the main factor exerting pressure on the market. According to data published on March 18, the volume of new construction projects in the country decreased by 29.6% in January-February, which is significantly higher than the December decline of 23%. Given these dynamics, traders note that a rapid recovery in steel demand in the construction industry is unlikely to occur in the near future.
The reduction of steel production in China has an additional impact on the market. According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in the first two months of 2025, the country's metallurgical enterprises produced 166.3 million tons of steel, which is 1.5% less than in the same period last year. This indicates a decrease in demand for raw materials and puts pressure on their prices.
In the current situation, market participants continue to closely monitor developments, assessing possible prospects for price stabilization and demand recovery.